The key message is straightforward: CMN Resolution No. 5,298, dated April 24, 2026, prohibits the offering and trading in Brazil of derivatives linked to sports, political, social, cultural, or entertainment events, and bans the offering within the country of contracts traded abroad. It also grants discretionary authority to the Brazilian Securities and Exchange Commission (CVM) to classify additional cases. This triggers an immediate regulatory alert for both onshore and cross-border structures and offerings, requiring prompt responses in governance, distribution, and client communication.
Below are the key changes, the associated legal risks, and who is affected in practice.
What CMN Resolution No. 5,298 changed in the derivatives market
Article 3 of CMN Resolution No. 5,298 establishes the prohibition of offering and trading, in Brazil, derivative contracts linked to events of a sports, political, social, cultural, or entertainment nature, as well as others that may be classified as such at the CVM’s discretion. Article 4, in turn, prohibits the offering within Brazilian territory of contracts traded abroad, expanding the scope of the rule beyond the domestic trading environment and directly impacting cross-border structures.
The rule also grants the CVM broad discretionary powers to determine what qualifies as an admissible underlying asset for derivatives, thereby expanding the material scope of the prohibition through sub-legal regulation.
Who is most affected and where risk arises in daily operations
While CMN Resolution No. 5,298 remains in force, any participant that offers or trades, in Brazil, derivatives whose value depends on the outcome of sports, political, social, cultural, or entertainment events is subject to the express prohibitions set forth in Articles 3 and 4.
Structures created abroad but targeting investors in Brazil also fall within the risk zone: Article 4 prohibits the offering within Brazilian territory of contracts traded abroad, directly affecting digital platforms, referral partnerships, and marketing content that may characterize an active offering in the country of products with event-linked payoffs.
A relevant side effect of the cross-border restriction is the potential migration of transactions to foreign jurisdictions, leading to reduced transparency and diminished supervisory capacity by Brazilian authorities. As a consequence of CMN Resolution No. 5,298, the Secretariat for Prizes and Betting of the Ministry of Finance has ordered the blocking of access, from Brazilian territory, to nearly 30 predictive market websites.
Conclusion
CMN Resolution No. 5,298 introduced broad prohibitions on the offering and trading of event-linked derivatives, including when such contracts are traded abroad, and granted the CVM discretionary authority to further classify prohibited assets.
It is important to note, however, that predictive markets are not prohibited in Brazil; rather, their legal qualification as derivatives—common in other jurisdictions—is not permitted.
A prudential approach is recommended, calibrated through risk matrices and communication plans, with particular focus on offerings that may be characterized as taking place within Brazilian territory and on structures more exposed to event-outcome logic.
Significant uncertainties remain regarding the exact scope of what will be considered an “event” and the criteria the CVM may adopt, which justifies additional caution and, potentially, formal consultations with regulators.
Moreover, the Resolution may be subject to challenge, including by means of a Legislative Decree that could overturn its effects—such a bill has already been introduced in the Brazilian Congress.
On the other hand, there are opportunities for those who act swiftly: reviewing portfolios, adjusting channels, and grounding decisions may not only mitigate enforcement risks but also position institutions at the forefront of the governance standards required at this moment, including through the exploration of betting modalities that are expressly permitted or not expressly prohibited.
We remain available to support with in-depth legal analysis, impact assessments, and regulatory engagement strategies.
